http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/ en Copyright 2010 Tue, 20 Jul 2010 12:27:27 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification  
This comparison to Amazon is important because operators not only need to copy Amazon's online customer service they also need to copy Amazon in how they use their vast repository of customer data.  I've been a customer of TMO for many years, they've earned thousands of dollars from me and not once have they contacted me.  Amazon tells me about tons of good, relevant things, like stuff for my 7 month old son just before it turns out I really do need it - they're amazing.  TMO are not in the same league, and they should be. 

Operators have access to an immense range of data, they know everything Google / Amazon knows plus: where you are at all times of the day, how fast you're driving, where you like to go on weekends, where you have dinner, where you had lunch, how long you were at lunch.  When you entered a country, how often you enter that country, how much you spend on communication services, what web services you use when in that country.  When and where you use value added  / web services.  If you use lots of data services at home.  The phone numbers of your friends, who you ignore, when you ignore calls.  The phone numbers of your business associates, who you talk to most.  Your favorite TV programs, when you like to watch TV, what interactive TV services you use.  All your SMS (why are they not searchable and stored in the network?)  All your voice messages (why are they not searchable?)  The list goes on...  Yet operators some how believe they can monetize this information without first proving they can use it.

What's stopping telcos adopting what Amazon has done for years?  Its actually a mind set issue not a technology or business issue.  Jumping up a level and comparing telecom and IT to explain that I mean.

From a technology perspective we're witnessing the ITization of Telecoms, not a merger: IP was an enterprise technology (when it achieved scale) that is now the core of telecoms, not ATM; SOA is an IT work-flow bus that is now the core of an operators' service delivery and business operations.  Similarly, the TMF will be replaced with ITIL, because enterprises use ITIL not TMF.  Operators must talk the language of their customers.  Its a scale / TTM (Time To Market) issue, enterprise has scale and rapid evolution (starts small and feature rich and rapidly evolves into 5 9s).  Telecom continues to try to create a custom world in 7 days and fails.  As an example the Apple iPhone app store implements an on-device portal that telecom operators had offered to them since 2002!  As an industry we're missing opportunities because of an insular attitude that ignores the methods of IT's success - start small, focus on a high value problem and grow from there. 

Put simply operators should copy Amazon's service development model, putting small 5-6 people teams together to solve a specific high value problem.   For example in customer relationship innovation, perhaps examining a segment of small medium businesses and finding ways to save them costs through the operator's services using the business intelligence the operator has available.  Granted Amazon has a loosely coupled service oriented framework to make this work efficiently, but there's nothing stopping operators doing the same.

The communications industry continues to struggle with its IT spend.  Compared to industry averages, operators spend 9% of revenue on IT compared to an industry average of 4%.  70% of that spend is on legacy systems, and 75% is on custom systems rather than COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf).  Are operators' business processes so different they require custom systems?  Are customers even aware of such differentiation?  The answer is no.  These figures are perverse, 80% of spend should be on new customer facing platforms and COTS - a minority on legacy and custom solutions.    We've got to fundamentally change the industry's mindset else customers will choose Amazon - as they already are for VAS (Value Added Services) such as movie rentals.  Just compare the Amazon on Demand experience with that of your IPTV provider - they're not in the same league. 

Its not a technology or business issue we've got to fundamentally rethink how we solve problems.  No grand all-encompassing architectures that take 5 years to build, rather a loosely coupled service oriented system with lots of small teams solving high value problems that if successful grow and if not die.
]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/operators-need-for-baby-steps.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/operators-need-for-baby-steps.html BOSS Mobile Industry General Service Platforms AT&T Amazon Amazon on demand COTS CT Commercial Off The Shelf Communication technology ICT IPTV IT ITIL ITization of Telecom IVR Information and COmmunication technology Interactive Voice Response ODP T-Mobile TMF TMF TeleManagement Forum TMO TTM Time To Market VAS Value Added Service customer data customer service iPhone mind-set issue movie rental on device portal online customer service Tue, 20 Jul 2010 12:27:27 -0500 Broadband World Forum (BBWF) in October.  Informa have taken over BBWF so their massive conference machine, and in particular Gavin Whitechurch, have put together a great event.  I consider BBWF to be the key event in the broadband calendar, and though not yet the scale of MWC in the mobile world, its well on its way.

The conference brochure is now available for download here.  By the numbers there will be 6000+ attendees, 280+ exhibitors, 200+ speakers, 125+ global carrier case studies & presentations.  The latter number is key, like MWC this is one of the few events operators attend.  In particular, there will be the leadership figures of:

• DooWhan Choi, President Corporate Technology Group, Korea Telecom;
• Mike Quigley, CEO National Broadband Network, Australia;
• Hugh Bradlow, CTO Telstra, Australia;
• Olivier Baujard, Chief Technology Officer, Deutsche Telekom; and
• Dr Shyue-Ching Lu, Chairman & CEO Chunghwa Telecom.

Then more importantly from my perspective the people that make the decisions at the coal-face (in particular from my sessions):

• Mark Hahn, Systems Architect, Verizon;
• Christophe François, Vice President, Mobile Multimedia Products & Services, Orange; and
• Colin Pons, Senior  Strategy & Business Analyst, KPN Telecom.

I show below the two sessions I'll be chairing at the event.  The SDP session will have Mark from Verizon and Colin from KPN presenting their experiences.  On the panel session will be the presenters and Ty from Oracle and Lucia from Huawei.  I've known all for most of this decade, they are the leading implementers and thinker in this space, so we're going to have a stimulating discussion to say the least on the first day.

On the last day of the conference is a session I think will be great fun: Developer Communities and Service Innovation.  Mark, Colin and Christophe from Orange will be giving rapid fire 'elevator pitches' on what they're doing, then with Varun Arora (CEO HomeCamera, winner of last year's InfoVision Award) and Sean O'Sullivan (CTO Dial2do) we'll have a frank and open discussion between operators and developers.
 

Tuesday 26th Oct 1430-1545: Service Delivery Platform Evolution Revolution, Convolution, Amalgamation, Elimination or Virtualization?
Examining the impact the confluence of several critical technologies / developments have on the SDP such as: cloud computing / managed services; and open initiatives such as Joint Innovation Labs, GSMA's OneAPI, OMTP's BONDI, Open IPTV Forum, and OSGi (Open Services Gateway initiative).  Reviewing key trends in operators' requirements and their competitive environment as web and telco converge. Present a view on the current and likely future evolution of the SDP: will it change, get more complex, will silos finally consolidate, or will it simply go away?

14.30 Chairman's Introduction

14.35 Verizon's SDP Experience - Mark Hahn, Principal Member of Technical Staff, Verizon, USA
Verizon is the leading converged operator with one of the largest IPTV deployments in the world of 3M subscribers in Q1 2010, and a mobile customer based of 93M customers. Their Service Delivery Ecosystem (SDE) is fundamental to Verizon's vision of services available across all its networks. Verizon's service vision results in customers considering their services as independent of a particular device and network: whether it be mobile, broadband or legacy networks. Services will be able to access common and shared infrastructure such as an identity management framework; finally removing multiple logons and conflicting security settings which plague most multiplatform services today.

14.55 KPN's SDP Experience - Colin Pons, Senior Strategy & Business Analyst, KPN, Netherlands
KPN vision is to provide services to any device on any network at anytime. Eventually, it moves to "Everything-is-a-Service" model. From a user perspective consistent, on-par (Apple setting the bar) UX is one of the most important buying (and usage) motivation. Customer satisfaction efforts demand co-operation/partnership with others in the value chain, among which are (independent) developers, VARs, users, verticals, etc. Hence, services will encompass assets and capabilities from many
different sources. Critical for this paradigm is fulfillment(including activation, registration, log-on), assurance and billing.

15.15 Panel Discussion: SDP Evolution
• Discussion of issues raised in the the presentations with the audience.
• Are SDPs relevant in a web-centric delivery model?
• Will the multiple SDP silos across mobile, IPTV, legacy and broadband converge?
• Are there gaps in the current standards?
Mark Hahn, Principal Member of Technical Staff, Verizon
Colin Pons, Senior Strategy & Business Analyst, KPN
Lucia Gradinariu, Chief Market Strategist, Consumer Software and Services, Huawei Software Company
Ty Wang, Senior Director, Oracle Communications Business Unit, Oracle

15.45 Networking Break & Exhibition Visit


Thursday 28th Oct 1430-1545: Aligning to Developer Needs Using Developer Communities to Lead the Service Innovation Race
2009 was the year of the app store and developer community.  In 2010 how are we doing as an industry? This session brings together the leading developer community managers with leading developers to frankly discuss what's worked and how to improve upon what has been achieved.

14.30 Chairman's Introduction:

14.35 Verizon's Application Network Interface and Open Development Initiative: Mark Hahn, Principal Member of Technical Staff, Verizon
Verizon is working to tap into the innovative energy of their customers, suppliers, and partners; and to leverage the combined power of IMS, the Web, and attached devices/networks. They have defined an Application-to-Network Interface (ANI) to expose key enablers (location, presence, conference, profile, address book, etc.) such that they are easily incorporated by developers into innovative new services; examples include Verizon's Open Development Initiative (ODI) and Verizon's
Developer Community (VDC).

14.45 Case Study: Orange Partner: Christophe Francois, VP Multimedia Services and Head of Orange Partner
Orange wants to play a stronger role in the applications eco-system. Its Orange Partner program is being reshaped to offer an end-to-end set of services and a comprehensive Toolbox combining various APIs for developers wanting to use the Orange Application Shop as a distribution channel for their apps.

14.55 Practical aspects of Operators 3rd Partner Development Initiatives: Colin Pons, Senior Strategy & Business Analyst, KPN
In theory asking a third party to create a service for your network for free sounds quite appealing from an operator's perspective. But for the developer is it really that interesting? This presentation will explore the practical challenges operators face in working with developers / third parties. What are the viable business models? Can an operator simply copy Apple? And if not, what should be their model?

15.05 Panel Discussion: What are Developers' needs?
• Why haven't operator developer communities taken off like Apple or Android?
• What should / can an operator do to change the situation?
Varun Arora, Co-Founder and CEO of HomeCamera
Christophe Francois, VP Multimedia Services and head of Orange Partner
Sean O'Sullivan, CTO, Dial2do
Colin Pons, Senior Strategy & Business Analyst, KPN
Mark Hahn, Principal Member of Technical Staff, Verizon

15.45 Networking Beak & Exhibition Visit ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/broadband-world-forum-2010-oct.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/broadband-world-forum-2010-oct.html Broadband Broadband Access Service Platforms Application-to-Network Interface (ANI) Australia BBWF Broadband World Forum CEO National Broadband Network CTO Telstra Chairman & CEO Chunghwa Telecom Chief Technology Officer Christophe François Colin Pons Deutsche Telekom DooWhan Choi Dr Shyue-Ching Lu GSMA's OneAPI Gavin Whitechurch Huawei Hugh Bradlow Informa KPN Telecom Korea Telecom Lucia Gardinariu Mark Hahn Mike Quigley Mobile Multimedia Products & Services OMTP's BONDI Olivier Baujard Open IPTV Forum Oracle Orange President Corporate Technology Group SDE Senior Strategy & Business Analyst Service Delivery Ecosystem Systems Architect Ty Wang Verizon Verizon's Developer Community (VDC) Verizon's Open Development Initiative (ODI) Vice President address book and OSGi (Open Services Gateway initiative) cloud computing / managed services; and open initiatives such as Joint Innovation Labs conference developer communities dial2do expose enablers homecamera innovative new services location presence profile sean o'sullivan service innovation varun arora Thu, 15 Jul 2010 12:26:39 -0500 API Management Whitepaper. However, time is moving on and operators continue to struggle with implementing the basics given their business model (charge before the customer even knows they want / need the service, not sharing the love with developers) and lack of board level commitment (most developer communities and API initiatives remain window dressing for investment analysts not a strategic objective).  As evidence on the latter point just look at the relative size of investments in LTE and APIs, they're different by orders of magnitude.

Operators have been working at developer communities for nearly a decade with little success beyond a few strategic partners. Given the success of Apple and Android, we're seeing renewed operator effort in developer communities, e.g. WAC (Wholesale Application Community). Yet the mistakes of the past continue to be made. I've discussed developer needs and the core advantage operators have in engaging developers, but operators remain focused on nickel and diming their customers and developers in the face of a clearly winning model from a customer engagement perspective.

We're now in 2010 and Apple and Android have fundamentally changed the world's perception of where the value resides. People pay for expensive devices and the apps / services / VAS (Value Added Services) are free. Its just like the web, you pay for the laptop and then all the cool stuff of the web is available for 'free.'  We had our chance and blew it because of the telcos' business model and a lack of board level commitment - I apologize for the repetition.

The technology behind the app stores created by Apple, Android, RIM, etc. has been available to operators for most of this decade: ODPs (On Device Portals), device management, content ingestion, location, presence, charging, trial to buy, ad support, etc. Device fragmentation was and remains an issue, but it was compounded by the silly notion that the ODP had to work across all of the operators devices.

Operators continue to make good business out of selling content (games, ring-tones, movies, wallpapers, etc.) especially in developing nations, its a $70B business. So the OTT (Over The Top) app stores of Apple and Android have some commercial catching up to do, but that's really not their focus, rather its about delivering customer value so more devices are sold or OS (Operating System) users gained to spy on. The death knell has sounded as Apple/Android have won the customer engagement battle.

So where does this leave operators? Cricket (mPortal) and Bharti Airtel (Cibenix) provide good examples of what to do in developed and developing markets: APIs are important but forget about per dip charges; an operators' developer community is no longer relevant rather focus on ingestion and partnering; and its all about the customer experience, i.e. making it easy for customers to do stuff. These examples are showing ARPU increases in the multiple 10%s, as discussed in the original API ARPU uplift analysis.

On the enterprise side we have CEBP (Communication Enabled Business Processes) as discussed in this whitepaper, and there's the M2M (Machine to Machine) opportunity: security, mHealth, connected car, connected home, etc. This is where Amdocs jNetx impressed me with their vision of how their SDP enables an operator to play a role in the internet of things, see diagram below. And yes, both Apple and Google have a clear plan on how they will move into that space. Hence, operators need to get their act together and really commit to service innovation, get board level commitment, and execute before the web service providers run rings around them yet again.

 ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/where-next-for-operators-servi.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/where-next-for-operators-servi.html Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 API Amdocs jNetx CEBP Charti Airtel Cibenix M2M ODP OTT SDP WAC ad support android api management apple application development communities application program interface charging communication enabled business processes connected car connected home content ingestion core operator advantage cricket developer needs device management lack of board level commitment location mHealth mPortal on device portal over the top presence security sharing the love trial to buy wholesale application community Tue, 13 Jul 2010 14:52:26 -0500 This old weblog article from 2008 discusses the cost structure of a typical mobile operator, and I show below the structure graphically.  The key figure is transport costs (backhaul) are roughly 7% of total costs back in 2008.  Some operators have seen that jump to over 15%-20% of total costs in under 2 years.  The reason is the tipping point achieved in mobile broadband adoption, discussed in this article. 
Backhaul is the transport link from the radio base station into the mobile network's core.  Its generally leased line (copper or fiber), microwave or metro Ethernet; the choice is highly influenced by the incumbent fixed operator's role in the mobile market, level of competition and local regulation. For example, BT has been aggressive in its metro Ethernet pricing to keep its backhaul business in a competitive market, while in the less competitive French market France Telecom is able to keep backhaul costs significantly higher (outside Paris.)

At the moment we're seeing lots of excitement around LTE (Long Term Evolution), which requires operators to deploy a third radio access network (after 2G and 3G) and a separate core network that is claimed to somehow magically lower operational costs.  Back in 2008 this weblog article discussed that fallacy.  Unfortunately the NEP's marketing engines have kept on rolling in the face of common sense and we're now seeing some operators realize that its not an air interface issue, HSPA and HSPA+ are perfectly adequate for their customers' needs.  Its a backhaul issue, those 3 sectors running at 20Mbit/s require 50+ Mbps of backhaul, while there had only been 8 Mbps in place.  Quadrupling the capacity has doubled / tripled the transport cost, hence the jump in backhaul costs from 7% to 15-20% depending on the market.

To alleviate this problem Sycamore Networks have come up a very smart technology, IQStream - props to Scott Hilton, Talbot Hack, Yang Cao and the rest of the team for their excellent innovation.  As shown below it can provide up to 90% capacity saving in the backhaul, of course the design rule will be more conservative. At least Sycamore Networks are focusing on the key part of the problem, rather than encouraging operators to make decisions not in their best interest.  For the sake of our industry the NEPs must stop conning operators, and act in their customer's best long term interest not their own short term interests.


]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/mobile-broadband-backhauls-the.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/07/mobile-broadband-backhauls-the.html Broadband Access Mobile Data BT France Telecom HSPA HSPA+ IQStream LTE NEP NEPs Sycamore Networks backhaul metro ethernet opex capex transport costs Tue, 13 Jul 2010 11:34:15 -0500 Isle of Man (where I grew up), from Singapore (Goto Camera), and most recently Sri Lanka with hSenid's SDP in the Cloud, which was recently released and then deployed with Etisalat - Sri Lanka (formerly known as Celltel & then Tigo) the country's first cellular network commencing operations in 1989. It is a subsidiary of Etisalat, UAE, a global telecommunications investor with cellular operations in over 18 countries and a subscriber base of over 100 million.

The SDP in the Cloud from hSenid Mobile allows Operators to open their services and capabilities to developers to implement and deploy applications that the operator's customers can immediately use. Developers are abstracted from the complexities of connecting to the Telco network and its underlying protocols.  Instead they focus on building apps ranging from simple entertainment, information and communication applications, to complex enterpise apps.

Being cloud based means all the software and hardware to implement the online tools for the Developer Community, as well as the SDP to deliver the applications to their customers is available on demand. This removes any barrier to entry an operator could raise about return on investment risk.

Quoting Etisalat's Chief Executive Officer, Dumindra Ratnayake.  "We are excited about the revolutionary deployment of mChoice™ Aventura, hSenid Mobile's Cloud Enabled Telco Platform, especially its potential efficiencies and versatility. mChoice™ Aventura's Mobile Application Developer Portal we believe, will revolutionize the sphere of Mobile Applications by opening opportunities to anybody with even a basic knowledge to develop mobile phone applications to take the industry to greater heights. We are therefore delighted to have been associated with hSenid Mobile, with its dynamic and relevant approach towards the telecom industry."

Etisalat was able to get the platform up and running in weeks as it does not require an expensive SI (System integrator) to specify, plan, project manage, install, configure and integrate the platform - they simply rent the platform and hSenid manages the integration.

hSenid Mobile, is a multi-national Mobile Software applications company, that provides next generation telco platform consisting of messaging, mobile money, OSS/BSS and core signaling. Along with its cloud enabled telco platform hSenid Mobile offers a comprehensive product portfolio that includes a cloud enabled subscriber created VAS platform, open source app store, end-to-end customer churn management, multi-channel top up, location based services, mobile commerce, and telco reporting. ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/sdp-in-the-cloud.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/sdp-in-the-cloud.html Service Platforms 3G trial Celltel Dumindra Ratnayake Etisalat Sri Lanka OSS/BSS SDP SDP in the cloud Tigo application developer portal cloud core signaling developer developer community end-to-end customer churn management Solution goto camera hSenid Mobile innovation isle of man location based services mChoice Aventura messaging mobile commerce mobile money multi-channel top up network API open source app store rent services singapore subscriber created VAS platform telco reporting Tue, 29 Jun 2010 08:46:19 -0500 Mobile World Congress this year. The N-series has been Nokia's crown jewel for years and dominated the smartphone space before the arrival of Apple's iPhone (be-careful how you hold it) and HTC's Android-based devices. "Going forward, N-series devices will be based on MeeGo," said Nokia spokesman Doug Dawson.

MeeGo is in a tough position as it was positioned as fulfilling the Smartbook category (ARM based laptop) which will likely be squeezed between the smartphone and PC/Mac/Linux OSs.  The decision to have high-end smartphones use MeeGo rather than Symbian will likely have limited impact on MeeGo, while its impact on Symbian will be much more devicisive as it essentially splits Nokia's ecosystem which will put off developers even more.  Critically, in some of the latest MeeGo presentations the kernel isn't presented as Linux, see below, rather calling it the MeeGo kernel as they are likely creating a tightly controlled vertical like iPhone, RIM and increasingly Android and Microsoft.  Also its unclear Nokia and Intel are converging their value ecosystems, that is the vertically integrated solution from app ingestion; through discovery, delivery and device management; to a slick integrated user experience - creating yet more division thus putting developers off further.

With this announcement I've revised the smartphone OS projections I maintain, see below, which I started maintaining back in 2006 when I was helping A la Mobile - who demonstrated the industry's first applications based on the open source Android application framework, running on HTC's Qtek 9090 advanced smartphone back in January 2008 (I'll not discuss how Google reacted).  Andreas Constantinou has an excellent weblog entry entitled "Android is Evil", where its clear the term open source in Android is really for marketing purposes from an OEM's perspective.  But back to Symbian, this latest mis-step by Nokia will ensure Symbian looses its smartphone OS lead by around 2014. ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/divided-they-fall-symbian-cont.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/divided-they-fall-symbian-cont.html Mobile Industry General A la mobile ARM Andreas Constantinou Android Apple HTC Intel Linux Mac OS MeeGo Microsoft N-Series Nokia OEM PC OS RIM Symbian iPhone mis-step mobile World Congress net book open source smartbook smartphone Fri, 25 Jun 2010 09:58:11 -0500
The survey is here: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/CGGMPY7

Some of the questions he's asking include: Is capability and service exposure relevant? Will operators be able to attract developers and build a developer community? What help do you expect from operators?

He's added some incentives to encourage completion including a free copy of results and the chance to win a Netbook.  ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/moriana-survey-on-operator-rel.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/moriana-survey-on-operator-rel.html Mac Taylor Moriana developer relationship with operators developer requirements operator developer communtiy Thu, 24 Jun 2010 09:22:57 -0500
1. Without direct Customer Access nothing matters

2. Do not charge, share in revenue stimulated

3. Mitigate device fragmentation - it's the only technical issue

4. Keep the process Simple, Stated, Time-lined, Online and above all Followed

5. Create a class of Showcase Developers - quality matters

6. Focus on Enterprise as much as Consumer

7. Partner with the Platform Developer Communities

8. Market Showcase applications and those developers willing to share 50:50 rather than 70:30 in revenue

9. Accept Platform Developer Certifications (e.g. Java certified) wherever possible

10. App Store must be front and center of all operator customers' experiences - just like Apple iPhone

]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/the-ten-commandments-for-opera.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/the-ten-commandments-for-opera.html Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 apple app store developers direct customer access operator app store revenue share ten commandments Wed, 16 Jun 2010 11:00:07 -0500
The ad-sponsored model is very effective in disrupting many industries, enabling web service providers to come in and shake up industries from OS (Chrome OS / Android) through enterprise applications (Google Apps) and telecoms (Google Voice), to advertising and newspapers.  But nothing in life is for free, in the ad-sponsored model people pay in time / attention and privacy rather than in cash.

Operators have a business model based around the customer paying in cash, and its quite a big industry at $2T per year.  There's an important psychology around what happens when someone pays cash for a service even if its only a few pennies, they develop expectations.  When things do not work, or are a pain to use because of annoying advertising they complain.  So an operator's business model based on the customer pays is great ($2T per year), but it is also at risk from disruptive business models (ad-sponsored), and its limited in practice on how far it can extend into ad-support.

So getting to the point of this article, third party application / API business models for consumer; note I'm not focused on the enterprise or B2C segments, that's another story.  Over the past couple of years I've been trying to persuade operators that their business model provides them with a unique opportunity to attract developers that can not be copied by the web service providers.  That is when an application stimulates revenue earning traffic the operator "shares the love," say 5%; that's potentially billions of dollars for developers, this wipes out anything the web service providers can offer.  So there's no need to charge for most APIs, and in any case all the APIs offered by Google/Android, Apple/iPhone/iPad, RIM and Nokia/Symbian are for free.  So there's simply no way operators can charge for most APIs without looking silly, the purpose of APIs is to simply to make applications easier to use.

There's a critical point we need to consider about the importance of third party applications / content: they are value added services which have caused the terminal decline in ring-tones and games sold from operators' portals as operators have simply not responded to the change in customers' behavior.  It will not be long before the VAS of SMS and voice are also under attack from these third party applications.

To date no operator has adopted this approach of "sharing the love" with developers and not charging for most APIs - its not an alien concept as they do "share the love" with resellers.  Instead they continue to nickel and dime developers with API charges and reject any notion of sharing the love, hence a fundamental advantage is lost.  The clock is ticking on when third party VAS move on from ring-tones and games to something juicier.
]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/a-fundamental-advantage-lost-b.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/06/a-fundamental-advantage-lost-b.html Mobile Industry General Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 Advertising Android Application programming interface Babylonian Business model Egyptian Facebook Google Google Apps Google Chrome OS Google Voice Times Web service iPad Fri, 11 Jun 2010 11:44:14 -0500 Ric Ferraro, when I read through his article about a day in his life in 2020.  I thought I'd use this article to give my perspective on how some technologies and behaviors may look by then, as well as some ramblings on a few related topics.

An important point I want to raise at the start is diversity in consumption, most new technologies never completely replace old consumption models, they may replace the technology used around a particular form of consumption, but the consumption model remains; as a society we change our habits very slowly. Take watching movies as an example, in 2010 I can go to the cinema, buy a DVD or bluray to watch at home (VHS is dead), or avoid leaving home and download the movie to watch via Verizon, Amazon on Demand, Sony Store, Netflix to my TV or PC and I guess in time my mobile. 

There is also a current plague of 'black and white' thinking on the internet.  I guess related to the phenomenon referred to in Nicholas Carr's new book, The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains.  Examples of 'black and white' thinking include such statements as "iPad changes everything," or the "future is 3D."  Do a search and you will see people trying to be credible and saying such weak-thinking statements.  The future is more subtle, its about shades of gray, and in the future there will be a few more shades of gray.  The key is understanding which shades grow in frequency, which do not, and which diminish.  Lacking such hype may not 'attract' as much interest in the attention economy, but for the people that take note - they're likely to have a better chance of making money and protecting their future.

I thought long and hard about whether the laptop would disappear into the cloud in 2020 and we'd just use whatever screen was at hand or a dumb terminal.  But the mobile network capacity to support most laptops / tablets / computing devices in that mode is simply not there, plus international roaming will likely remain an issue (granted more of a niche issue).  And storage is just so damned cheap having it at your finger tips no matter where you are (e.g. on a plane, or anywhere coverage is not great) makes me think the cloud will not replace the laptop in the next 10 years.  Rather the cloud will complement as it does today for an early adopter group just more people will be in that group, my contention is most of us will be in that group.  And let's face it, even Larry Ellison has stopped ranting about cloud computing and come to terms with his private cloud that Oracle can manage on behalf of its customers - so its here to stay.

I think a significant leap will happen in battery technology over the next 10 years, combined with solid state memory in mobile computers making them an always on personal area hub.  A headset with UWB (Ultra-Wide Band) or bluetooth is the phone and MP3 player, the 'phone' just becomes a service of my PAN.  Of course the personal area hub can be phone sized, or laptop sized; its just personal preference based on your workstyle.  For me it will be laptop sized so I can work wherever I am in the world.  Flexible screens and reliable voice control will be viable by 2020, so in your pocket could be a screen wrapped up in something the size of a pen or just a simple lightweight dumb terminal that uses UWB back to the personal area hub, the screen would be your equivalent of a smartphone / PDA, and if the headset battery runs out also your phone.  I doubt HUD (Heads Up Displays) will be pervasive for the risk of Yuppies walking into old ladies; just like the Segway remains niche with 5k annual sales per year and no sign of profitability.  Yuppies (an '80s term) today are those people that blather loudly on Twitter (just like Yuppies did on their mobile phones in the '80s), and the same insult still applies to them, they're tw*ts.

We will still use voice in preference to video communications in 2020, as people do not need nor want to see the person they're talking to in most business situations.  Video will be used more for personal communications.  Also the technology will in general not be 3D or holograms, just simply a better quality picture than today, ultra high definition will start to enter the market and the cameras will be intelligent to cope with the poor lighting in most real-world situations, unlike webcams today.  And for watching TV, ultra HDTV will be the focus, not 3D as the glasses are a pain.  3D will be there as an option, mainly used for kiddies movies, but what will have most impact is making the movie look real, HDTV is only a first step in that direction.

People will still read books in 2020 as they're so convenient - you can share.  Reading books on a dedicated reader or tablet, laptop or desktop will increase, but not replace book consumption.

Augmented reality will go the same way of virtual reality did in the '90s - niche.  Remember when the video game Doom allowed you to customize to real world locations and make the baddies pictures of your friends - it was fun but user experience is key.  Clicking on an app/bookmark (they're the same thing) is just so easy; rather than using the camera to take a picture, getting the AR app to recognize what you actually want as there's a lots of extraneous information in the real world that we humans so effectively ignore.  It will just make it easier to select what you want than do anything more fancy.  Keeping it simple is critical to success as Apple continues to demonstrate, e.g. they've made bookmarks look like apps through a simple presentation.

WiFi/UWB will start to finally get into the high end appliances, WiFi's already there in HDTVs.  Next on the list should be fridges, so when the delivery comes with your groceries, they can pack it and upload its contents.  Finally we'll know what's in the freezer - down to the shelf and if its front/back.  Though I think this is more a personal wish than a practical reality.

I'm also hoping Google's strangle hold over search will diminish over the coming decade, lists are so primeval.  Remember those mind-maps of the 1990s, in 2020 they're back but 3D (mapping - no need to glasses unless that's your preference) and color; make finding stuff so easy, just follow chains of thought.  WolframAlpha, though limited, makes accessing numerical based info just so damned easy.  Type in your first name and it shows the stats on how many people are alive (in the US) with your first name, the age distribution and lots of other cools stuff.  We need more innovation like this, so use WolframAlpha to encourage search innovation.

What always surprises me in looking back on shows from just 10/15 years ago is seeing fashions, language and idioms that dates the show.  So its not just technology but our perceptions across social norms, use of language, and fashion that keeps changing.  Though I'd argue technology has a trajectory, the others are more random.  For example, the current WMD (weapon of mass distraction) Twitter is a fashion that preys on people's need to be seen to 'know' about something as soon as possible.  I remember when I worked in large organizations there was always a contingent of corporate politicians who made it there business to know about the latest announcements and let everyone know, and would have no filter on whether the announcement was relevant or just marketing BS, essentially they created noise for the people who could analyze and then explain to them why its not that important.  Which they would promptly ignore as they got more attention from shouting fire several times a day.  Twitter is just feeding that human need, which like alcohol is OK in moderation, but I think at present people are partaking a little too much of low grade booze. ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/05/diversity-in-consumption-black.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/05/diversity-in-consumption-black.html Mobile Industry General 2020 3D 3D diversity in consumption Amazon on Demand DVD HUD Netflix Nicholas Carr PAN PC Ric Ferraro Sony Store TV The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains VHS Verizon WMD WiFi UWB balck and white thinking bluray books cloud ereaders google heads up display hologram laptop larry ellison life in 2020 mobile computing oracle personal area network shaed of gray tw*t twitter ultra HDTV weapon of mass distraction wolframalpha yuppies Thu, 06 May 2010 08:29:59 -0500
The report is available from Mind Commerce.  It brings together work performed on hybrid TV over the passed year through over 200 operator and supplier interviews and online questionnaires, gathering information on deployment experiences, market requirements, competitive landscape, and technology trends.  I'd like to thank everyone who helped in creating this report.

Report Structure
This 114 page report including 57 figures examines the current status of hybrid TV and Over The Top (OTT) TV with the following sections:

• Introduction: providing definitions and a brief global round up of hybrid TV activities, including standardization.
  
• Understanding the TV ecosystem: an important section for all readers from the telco industry.  Neither IPTV nor hybrid TV can be treated as an isolated industry; they're the delivery pipes for the much larger, complex and well established TV industry.
  
• Deployments and learning: reviewing hybrid TV deployments and the lessons learnt.
  
• Drivers for and business case of hybrid TV: based on market research in understanding why operators are moving to hybrid TV.
  
• Interactive services and STB (Set Top Box) applications: understanding an important category of services enabled by hybrid TV.
  
• OTT market status: examining this complex and rapidly changing Internet TV market.
  
• Hybrid TV suppliers: reviewing both solution providers and STB suppliers.
  
• Operator rankings and requirements: based on market research of operators' perceptions of suppliers and their requirements for hybrid TV solutions.
  
• Future of hybrid TV and recommendations for members of the ecosystem.
  

Target Audience

• PayTV operators (telcos, cable operators, satellite TV, and terrestrial TV) providing insight into the factors behind hybrid TV's success, and recommendations in retaining value in the evolution of the TV industry.
• PayTV and telco equipment providers: understanding the emerging hybrid TV opportunity and operators' requirements.
• STB application developers: helping understand where to focus in building STB applications.
• Investors: where the investment opportunities reside in the emerging Hybrid TV landscape.

The report is available from Mind Commerce.
 ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/04/hybrid-tv-and-over-the-top-tv.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/04/hybrid-tv-and-over-the-top-tv.html Interactive TV Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 4OD (CHANNEL 4 ON DEMAND) ABC ADB ALACTEL LUCENT AT&T Amazon OnDemand Amino Communications Apple Arris Audi TV BBC IPLAYER BOXEE BSkyB BT Babelgum Bebo Belgacom Bell Canada Bitband Blinkx Bravo BudTV CANAL+ CBS CE-HTML CISCO CNN COMHEM Cascade Charter Cable China Telecom Cisco / Scientific Atlanta CoNSUMER ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURERS Comcast Comedy Central Concurrent Current DEMAND FIVE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM DISH DVB MHP/GEM Dasan DirecTV Disney ECI ERICSSON ESPIAL ESPN Entone FASTWEB Facebook Fastweb FoxTel and SkyItalia Foxtel Fujitsu Getcable Google HANSENET HUAWEI HULU Harmonic HbbTV History Channel Honda Huawei Hybrid STB Hybrid TV INUK IPTV IPTV Operators / Cable TV / Satellite TV ITV PLAYER IV1 (Australia) JAZZTEL Joost KPN KUDELSKI GROUP Kate Modern Korean Telecom LG MINIWEB MOTOROLA MTV Marvel Comics Media / content Microsoft Mind Commerce Monaco Telecom Motorola Move Networks (Inuk) MySpace NBC NBC Universal NEC NEPs / IPTV Suppliers NSN Netflix Netgem Neuf Cegetel News Corporation Nokia Ovi Numericable O2 ORANGE / FRANCE TELECOM OTE OTT / Stores OTT TV On Telecom Onewave Optibase Orange TV Orca Over The Top TV PANASONIC PCCW PHILIPS ELECTRONICS Pace Paramount Pictures Philips Pirelli Quative RCN SAMSUNG SHARP SK Broadband SKY PLAYER SONY STB STB Manufacturers Sagem Samsung SaskTel SciFi Seachange Setanta Sigma Designs SkyLife SkySports Sofia's Diary SogeTel Sony Pictures Sony Store Sumitomo SureWest Swisscom TCom TECHNICOLOR (PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS THOMSON SA) TELECOM ITALIA TELECOM NEW ZEALAND TELECOM PORTUGAL TELEFONICA TIVO TNO TOSHIBA TV Industry Technicolor (previously known as Thomson SA) Tele+ Telia Telia Stofa Telus Time Warner Time Warner Cable UPC UT STARCOM VERIZON Veoh Verimatrix Verizon FiOS Viacom Virgin Media WALMART / VUDU WINDOWS MEDIA EXTENDER Widevine Yahoo! YouTube Yuxing ZTE Zattoo iTunes payTV telco TV Mon, 05 Apr 2010 09:08:37 -0500 Telco Business Model Evolution Questionnaire.  Responses came from all around the world with a even split between Americas, EMEA, and APAC; from mobile, converged and cable operators; their suppliers, application developers and a few web-based service providers.  The responses to the multi-choice questions are available in this PDF.

Just quickly reviewing the results.  There's a strong consensus (87.5%) that operators must take a different approach to Google in how they sell their users' eyeballs / privacy to advertisers, though there was 9.4% that disagreed.  For operators adopting an OTT (Over The Top) business model there was lower agreement of 55%, with a significant neutral vote at 34.4%.  On whether the customer would choose the operator as their trusted agent the vote was split with 56.3% agreeing and 36.3% disagreeing, so its clear there is still much debate on that point.  

Operators adopting a freemium model has support with 70%, the rest voting neutral.  In being able to make a business out of API exposure; with 79.4% agreeing its clearly seen as a real business opportunity for operators.  But as discussed in a previous article operators still have much work to do on basic business planning.  Then on where they'll be successful in API exposure the votes broke down: enterprise (75.6%), local content owners (57.5%) and internal development (56.3%) scored strongly; with consumer applications only gathering 18.1%.

On WAC, "The Wholesale Application Community will be successful," there is some uncertainty to its success with 50% neutral and 32% disagreeing with the statement.  I guess too many cooks in the kitchen, which to be frank remains the main problem for mpayments in developed markets.

Interestingly 83.1% think operators will be unable to make a business out of app stores as the consumer electronics manufacturers do not need to make money in the stores, only in the devices they sell.  With a similar score (84.4%) that operators' app stores must focus on applications that use their network, as all other applications will be commoditized by the consumer electronics manufacturers.  Some good steer on where operators should focus their efforts.

Nearly 80% think the trend of operators sharing networks will increase from radio towers and access equipment, to sharing complete networks.  Only the services layer and billing will be unique.  

There was more of a split on the question "An incumbent operator's ability to have an engineer at a customers' home potentially with their purchased consumer electronics, e.g. buy the TV at Amazon and have it delivered and set up by the operator.  Means operators can make a business out of home network solutions and services."  With 67% agreeing and 22% disagreeing.

"Churn will increase once all operators offer triple/quad play?"  had strong disagreement of 55%. This is an interesting discussion point, currently bundling does reduce churn.

Generally neutral response to "Canoe Ventures, the US cable industries attempt to work with the advertising industry on targeted advertising, will be a success."  I thought the neutral response was in part mobile / converged operators being unaware of Canoe, but MSOs had a similar profile.  So a cause for concern in the industry for being able to find a way to make targeted advertising work in a meaningful way for advertisers.  Then on which operators can make advertising work, the bias is towards mobile operators rather than cable. 

This was just a bit of fun, but I hope provides some insight into what the industry is thinking at the moment, a PDF of the results is available here. ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/summary-of-telco-business-mode.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/summary-of-telco-business-mode.html Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 APAC API Amazon Americas EMEA Google MSO Multi Service Operator OTT Over The Top WAC broadband canoe ventures converged enterprise freemium home networks internal development local content owners mobile network sharing telco business model evolution wholesale application community Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:24:44 -0500 Unmuddling APIs, Developer Communities, Developers, Third Parties, App Stores, App Warehouses, and Widgets....."  I discussed the confusion around the terms and set out some of the categories of third parties that could use operators' APIs:

• Enterprises (e.g. where an enterprise's IT developer may want to use presence for their corporate communications);
• Trusted third parties (e.g. local SIs that can use the APIs for the solutions to their SMB (Small Medium Business) customers);
• Trusted third parties that can help operators work better (e.g. someone helping T-Mobile analyze their customer data to they finally start treating me as a customer not a credit card to be billed monthly);
• Content owners that can use APIs to make their audience relationship stronger (e.g. Real Madrid giving up on email and now using SMS to great effect); and
• Developers / service providers who need a channel to market through the operator or web-based developers / service providers who have their own channel.

What I'm seeing in the market is because of the current confusion a serious mistake is being made, most operator API initiatives are trying to use their developer community as customers with the wrong business model.  The problem is their developer community is full of developers looking for the operator to be a channel to market, and expect to share in the revenue stimulated, not be "nickeled and dimed" on APIs,  Apple and Google do not charge for their APIs.  Operators are missing the bulk of the potential customers for the network APIs, those third parties with their own channel to market who just want to use the operator as a network.

So operators need to look at two sets of API business models:

• One for third parties with their own channel to market with straight forward API charges that discount in volume (enabling a wholesale model); and
• A pure revenue share model for developers looking to use them as a channel to market.

If an operator wants to make its API business successful, and not a fashion accessory, operators needs to sell their network APIs to third parties with their own channel to market.  This is not a developer community, these third parties will not come to the operator.  These third parties are paying their hard earned cash, they're business customers and must be treated as such.  Some of the example services enabled by network APIs include communication enabled business processes, M2M, home security, and content charging using the mobile account.  Operators need to package a number of solutions together and get out there and sell what their APIs can do.

If operators do not want to dirty their hands by having to sell their APIs, they need to get partners on board such as Kore Wireless (M2M), HomeCamera (security), Voicesage (CEBP), Oracle, and SAP as soon as possible.  Critically, operators must make make clear their API business models (both of them) and go to market plans for the different groups of third parties to stop the current confusion and frustration.
]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/operator-api-business-models-t.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/operator-api-business-models-t.html Web / Voice / Telco 2.0 HomeCamera (security) Kore Wireless (M2M) Oracle SAP Voicesage (CEBP) api business model content owners developers enterprises network APIs operator as a channel operator as a network service providers third parties two API business models Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:27:04 -0500 questionnaire around telco business model evolution.  With questions on advertising models, app stores, API exposure, operator as a trusted agent, sharing of networks, quad play, etc.

If you have the time I'd be grateful if you'd complete, and I'll share the results in a few weeks time. ]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/telco-business-model-evolution.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/telco-business-model-evolution.html API exposure advertising models app stores operator as a trusted agent quad play sharing of networks telco business model evolution Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:34:11 -0500
When I then start questioning, digging into what is meant, I then find at work the self-interested hand of investment analysts.  Whose sole purpose is to over-inflate a category that inevitably causes its crash so they can make money through those irrational cycles; they do not create value only leech upon the industries' that create value.  Given the bad M&A deals, the dot com bust, and the current fiasco; I remain perplexed why these analysts are held in any esteem.  So I thought I'd set out why I disagree with the argument that the mobile internet is the next wealth creation cycle.

In their analysis Japan is often cited as a leading example of where the market will go.  It is a special case,  i-mode did not work outside Japan because the model is broken for the rest of the world.  Its important to understand the history of a market.  Back in the '90s, when we used dial-up to access the internet, Japan was in a sorry state with respect to internet access.  Most young people did not have a fixed phone line at home because it required a large deposit to NTT, so they did not access the internet.  i-mode (NTT DoCoMo) provided a convenient way to access Japanese content, email and did not require a big deposit.  In addition, NTT DoCoMo controls the value chain in Japan unlike any other operator in the World, even Verizon.  So they could define the handsets, the software, the business models and had a hungry market.  This is an example of local market factors creating a unique situation.  I think we've seen enough i-mode failures outside Japan to realize it is specific to the Japanese market.

Then iPhone sales data is presented with an unusual spin.  Firstly, operators have been selling content and apps for phones on their portals for years, it was a $30B business that's now on the decline as people are no longer willing to pay for ring tones or even games. The iPhone is about selling consumer electronics, the iPhone app store is simply about generating customer value to buy the device.  I've discussed developer frustration on the race to zero in the crApp store in previous articles; so we're seeing overall value destruction not creation. 

Another point raised with the iPhone is the speed of adoption of this 'new' category, compared to desktop internet.  But this is comparing apples and oranges to make pears.  The desktop internet was creating a category, Apple's iPhone moved into an existing category of smart phones and handset apps; and with a closed proprietary system with a great user experience was able to fulfill the stifled demand.  So the 'urgency' with which this new mobile internet is going to overtake us appears a little over stated.

Most of the analysis I see quoted is from a US perspective.  Many developing markets are taking a quite different route to the US.  China Mobile's revenue is $65B while Vodafone is $67B, China Mobile's valuation is much greater than Vodafone's.  Given growth is with China Mobile, India and many other developing markets (e.g. LATAM), its a mistake to assume what happens in the US happens everywhere else and not treat developing markets as an equally important category in their own right.  For example, India is taking a distinctly different path to the US, just look at Bharti Airtel's approach and success with its version of the app store, or the struggles of the iPhone App Store in China.

Companies the investment analysts put in the 'mobile internet' category are consumer electronics, operators and web service providers.  Google is extending its value from the desktop to the handset, which increases the amount of time eyeballs spend at their site, but there are few 'new' eyeballs.  Most people with an iPhone or Blackberry also have PC access.  An exception is in some developing countries where it becomes their 'laptop,' but even in those cases they still use internet cafes.  So where are the new value creators in this mobile internet category such as Google for the desktop internet and Microsoft of the PC era?

In the investment analyst definition of mobile internet, it doesn't mean only mobile networks, it means any internet connected device as they include all the devices in the home.  So the mobile label is rather misleading.  Really they're talking about the internet being accessible by most consumer and enterprise electronics, the internet of things.  So let's look at an example, TVs becoming internet connected.  Essentially content owners can now have a direct relationship with customers, Disney's dream for many decades.  This bypasses the TV networks and payTV providers.  So two industries potentially face a tough future, but its going to take people to change their behavior from channel to programmatic consumption for this to come about.

In summary, a lack of experience of working in the industries they track, a lack of understanding of specific market's history, a US bias, comparing apples and oranges to make pears, and not digging into the specifics of what happens when most consumer electronics gets internet access means false categories are created which actually may have as much value destruction and creation.  Perhaps what their talking about is really the next phase of the internet's evolution, which is not really a wealth creation cycle rather the evolution of an existing industry.  So beware the self-interested hand of investment analysts talking about future wealth creation cycles - they're only after your retirement funds!

]]> http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/beware-investment-analysts-hea.html http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2010/03/beware-investment-analysts-hea.html Mobile Industry General China Mobile Japan Mobile Internet NTT DoCoMo Next Wealth Creation Cycle Vodafone apostate comparing apples and oranges to make paears heretic i-mode iPhone internet TV Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:47:25 -0500