LTE (Long Term Evolution, also known as 4G) is entering the hype-cycle, and being rapidly pushed up to the 'peak of inflated expectations', just like IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem), PTT (Push To Talk), FMC (Fixed Mobile Convergence), and far too many other technologies to name here.  So to cut through the hype and hopefully present a pragmatic view on the technology I thought it timely to make a few points, as I find I'm often repeating myself on this topic (I hope its not old age.)

A few pointers on what the technology can do:

• LTE will not greatly improve spectral efficiency compared with HSPA+ (High Speed Packet Access).  Within a 5MHz slot you could achieve perhaps 80 Mbit/s with HSPA+ (using MIMO (Multiple In Multiple Out) technology), compared to 100 Mbit/s with LTE. A 20% increase is unlikely to have customers demanding LTE.  The only tangible difference will be a slightly lower round-trip delay for LTE perhaps down to 10-20ms compared to perhaps 30-35ms with HSPA+, though with a flat IP core (moving RNC (Radio Network Controller) and SGSN (Serving GPRS Support Node) out of the data path) that could drop to about 20ms for HSPA+.
• LTE enables a higher peak data rates by using more bandwidth, scaling from 1.25 MHz (useful for the CDMA operators, hence Verizon's decision to adopt LTE) to 20 MHz and beyond.  LTE uses OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing), the same technology used in DSL (Digital Subscriber Loop), that is lots of little carriers, rather that one big one carrier as in HSPA, which gives LTE its flexibility.
• LTE can use FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) and unpaired TDD (Time Division Duplex) bands bought during the heady days of 3G spectrum auctions, where HSPA and GSM cannot operate in those bands
• LTE is a global standard, with a global frequency plan, hence can leverage global volumes, another reason behind Verizon's decision to adopt LTE, rather than pay an average $15 premium for its (CDMA) devices.  This is also the fundamental reason why the total cost of ownership of WiMAX networks will remain more expensive than LTE.
  
• HSPA has some funny technologies hidden away in it such as macro cell diversity, i.e. a terminal may use 2 or 3 cells at the same time. LTE does away with these complexities so does not need RNC nodes. LTE also has built in operational and maintenance capabilities, such as self-tuning to help control operational costs.
• By 2010 most GSM base stations in Western Europe will be over 20 years old. Most were put in during the "cheap-energy days."  Today, finally, green credentials matter to companies so LTE will enable the power consumption of mobile operators RANs (Radio Access Network) in the long run to be reduced by up to 50%.

A few pointers on the market's development:

• DoCoMo and Verizon are in unique positions that force a move to LTE faster than the rest of the market, so by 2010 they will likely be deploying LTE, and will be the first movers.
• Most in the GSM community will be working through HSPA+, which will significantly delay their need to move to LTE.
• The Flat IP core I referred to previously is a way of leapfrogging to the SAE (System Architecture Evolution), which can be thought of as the 4G Core, while LTE is the 4G RAN.  With the core upgraded, and a relatively fast RAN in HSPA+, most operators are only going to deploy LTE based upon operation needs.  Hence you'll likely see LTE being deployed more broadly in the market around 2013.
• And of course the good old chestnut of handset availability.  This is actually likely to be less of an issue compared to say 3G as most of the customers using LTE will be using a laptop with a USB fob.  Just remember to bring a spare laptop battery when you use LTE!
  

In a previous weblog article I discussed how the Telco API is much more than a method of exposing capabilities from telco networks to third party applications.  As these slides show, Telco API.pdf, the Telco API impacts all services in an operator's business.  Using the classic demand curve, we can break its impact into three main segments:

• Operator Branded Services.  Here the impact can be in enabling 3rd party features to be mashed up with an existing operator branded service, or as a standard within the operator to enable capabilities to be efficiently reused across operator branded services.
• Co-branded Services.  Any emerging category of services, exemplified by 3 with their X-Series, that co-brands services, e.g. Skype powered by 3.
• Long-Tail Services.  There are three important categories within the long tail.  Enabled Applications that do not necessarily have an operator brand association (e.g. 1800 services).  Endorsed application with a preferred search position and endorsement of the operator.  And the wild wild west of Internet Applications.

The previous weblog article described how the Telco API has the potential to raise ARPU by between 12-36% depending upon the operators' situation.  Adding a little more 'meat onto the bones' of the enabled services, this sample database shows a small subset of applications and application categories, their positions on the demand curve, potential business models and example suppliers.
 
The business model is broken down further into pricing options, addressable segments and longevity (is it a fad or a core service).  This is a critical change in service management for operators, voice and messaging are examples of core long-tern services; but many new services are more likely to be fads; that gain some traction and then fade into obscurity.  Some even consider social networks a fad!

The number of services in the full database is rather long, and faces the classic issue: is it a service or is it a feature.  For example, 'Brewey finder' can only exist within a package of location based services from an "operator branded" perspective.  However, there is a small segment of the market that would just want a brewery finder, here it may exist as a standalone third party application, and perhaps due to some inspired cross-marketing achieve a level of adoption not possible if it were operator branded.  This is an important point in evaluating the services enabled by the Telco API - operators must let their ADCs (Application Developer Community) freely innovate with services that may appear competitive to some operator branded features, in the limit the market will decide based on the value an operator presents to the customer.

Here is a list of just some of the services in the table.  As you can see it's a mix of specific services and broader service categories.  The reason is in part because it is a small sample from a much large database, and also because some service categories are understood in more detail than specific services:
Ad Insert Platforms; Ad Supported gaming; Address Book Community; Asset Tracking; Bill management; Blogging / MicroBlogging; Brewery finder; Call Management, CityInformation; Co-branded Widgets, Internet Mobilization, STB Widgets; Communication enabled business processes; Community enabler; Community Widget; Conferencing / Collaboration; Conferencing widget for social network; Content search and display; Converged Communications; Couponing; CRBT (Caller Ring Back Tone); Create mobile / STB content; Dating; Directory Services; Earthquake!; eGovernment; eHealth / Telemedicine; eInclusion; elearning; Emergency Alerts; Enhanced Voice; Enterprise Community; Enterprise LBS; Enterprise mash-up enabler; Enterprise mobilization; Family Management; Family Security; Family smart limits...

While at the Voice Peering Forum I met an innovative 'Voice 2.0' start-up called Fonolo.

If you need to call your bank, airline, operator, car rental agency, travel service, or one of those many other companies that waste your time by making you wait on the phone; this service does all the IVR (Interactive Voice Response) navigation and waiting for you, then once connected to an agent calls you back.  Its one of those applications that immediately reminds you of the frustrations of waiting on the phone for 30 minutes to then go through the same conversation you've had for the past 3 months about a billing error that keeps recurring.

It also keeps track of your calls, logging everything including the conversation, so for those companies that "may record your conversation for training and quality purposes;" you can now let them know you're recording the conversation for your records to be used later if required.  I've used the service a couple of times, and it "does what it says on the tin."  You can select where you want to go for a range of companies' IVR menus, and it calls you once connected to an agent.

Currently it's a free stand-alone application, set-up takes less than a minute and it works on any phone, you simply click on the webpage, get on with your life, and when the agent is connected you receive a call.  This does lead to the potential of missing the agent as you're on another call, buy you can always 'fonolo' the company again.

It could be offered by operators as a per-use or subscription based VAS (Value Added Service) to help their customers manage the frustrations with IVRs.  From a call center manager perspective this could lower their agent's efficiency while they wait the few seconds to be connected.  However, given the person using the Fonolo service will be in a more pleasant mood, the calls could be completed much faster, so overall it could be a gain.  It's one of those issues that only the market can decide.

One difficulty I see in mass-market adoption is I'm not sure people use call centers often enough to make this a subscription service, if it's a per-use model then awareness is a problem, and of course we have the background that on-line/web self-care is becoming increasingly common.  However, there will be a segment of power-users, to which this is a compelling time-saver and aligned to the way they conduct their lives.  

This issue of mass market adoption got me thinking about how the contact list on my phone suggests people's names as I type in 'U,' then 'N' from the keyboard.  Having this as a suggestion, e.g. 'Fonolo: United 1K international reservations' would make the use case a mass-market 'no-brainer.'   Just like when you start typing a URL (Uniform Resource Locater) on your browser and a number of suggestions pop-up.  The contact list / browser of the mobile phone is definitely emerging as a vital link in how operators can make it easy for customers to add cool little applications to their communications experience as part of their Telco API plans.

For the passed two years in helping operators and suppliers innovate around the concept of the Telco API, I've built a list of web / voice / telco 2.0 application developers that could benefit from the Telco API.  Currently the list is at about 800 companies, but it's always under revision as there is significant churn, consolidation, and new companies being added.  The list is in no way a complete picture of the relevant application developer landscape, just a continuous work-in-progress.  Attached is a sample of the web / voice / telco 2.0 list which shows the companies alphabetically, and was in part developed with Ideas and Plans.  The Category and Rating sections are simply methods I use for selecting and prioritizing the list based upon specific customer needs.  I've learned through painful experience its critical to keep the categories and ratings simple to avoid the list becoming burdensome to use and manage.

Defining the categories:

• Context Based, services that use presence, location or other customer contextual information, for example location based services such as geo-tagging pictures;
• Business, services focused upon the business segment, for example business messaging;
• Social, services that create a community of users that share, for example mobile communities;
• Financial, services including mobile payments and banking, this was introduced because of several specific project needs;
• Entertainment, services that present content to customers, e.g. internet TV;
• Voice 2.0, services generally focused upon embedding voice/communications into everyday activities or using VoIP for cheap calling, for example voice to text; and
• Telco 2.0, services generally focused upon innovation within the service provider business model.

The categories can be combined, so for example you can search for applications that are both context based and business; or social and entertainment and voice 2.0.

Defining the ratings:

• Viable, objective criteria (funded, listed, profitable) and opinion (gut-feel on company and position in category) on the company's viability;
• Cool, objective criteria (clear market segment) and opinion (gut-feel on application's potential) on the application's value to customers; and
• Telco Value, objective criteria on value proposition to an operator.

The ratings provide a simple method to prioritize potential lists of application developers.

As an example, say you want to find a list of the Voice 2.0 application providers, just select the Voice 2.0 category and a rather long list emerges:
Spinvox, Utterz, Angel.com, Funkycall, Call Genie, Gearon (Fidg't), Backflip software, BlueNote Networks, Fring, Goog411, ifbyphone, Jaduka, Parus Interactive, Ringcentral, Rminder, Sitòfono, Snapvine, Evoice, Iotum, Phonetag (nee Simulscribe), Razz, Ribbit, Robocal, Sightspeed, Talkr, Tokiva, Vbuzzer, Youmail, Blabberize, Enablr, Evoca, Gabcast, Gaboogie (Lypp ), Springdoo, Trixbox, Truphone, V4s (Orb), Vapps, Cellity, Cubic Telecom / MAXroam, JAHJAH, Jaxtr, Saynow, Thinkingvoice, Voicequilt, Voicethread, Vopium, Voxbone, WaxMail, Yoomba, Challenger mobile, EQO, Gizmo5, Hullo, MobileMax, Morodo / MO-Call, Pheeder, PhoneGnome, TalkPlay, Tpad, TringMe, Truphone, Velophone, Vephone, Vyke, WiFiMobile, Yodio, Allfreecalls, Barablu, Blobber, Blogtalkradio, Ether, Gizmo, Mobivox, Resellular, Talkety, Talkster, Voipdiscount / Voipcheap, Yackpack, Zozoc, Callthefuture, Juvino, Talktrust (Numbr), Wizzl, Yeigo, and Phonefromhere.

Or say you want a list of mobile payment / banking application providers, just select the Financial category and review the list to give:
3Bill, Mfoundry, PayMate.In, Clairmail, Firethorn, Frontstream Payments, Obopay, C-Sam, gWallet, Monetise, More Magic Solutions, Paypal Mobile, Splashdata, Textpayme, Upaid, Valista, Zong, Ixaris, Mi-Pay, Payment One, Sermepa, Fe-Mobile, Paypoint, Payter, Icache, Paymate, and Kuscash.

As I mentioned at the start of this entry the web / voice / telco 2.0 list is a work in progress, if you see any gaps or errors please let me know, thanks.

At the start of April I wrote about the consolidation in the service management space and the major trends of:

• Consolidation of functionality.  Just like enterprise IT, as mature functions are subsumed.  For example, once upon a time a service provider would buy a VoIP fulfillment platform, now multi-service fulfillment is the norm.
• Emergence of managed solutions.  This is coming more from the Service Delivery side of the competitive landscape.  Rather than buy a license and pay an SI, we're starting to see solutions (particularly in self-service) being managed by the technology provider on behalf of the service provider; which saves costs for the operator and the technology supplier, especially for those with scale.
• Consolidation of companies.  The 'big guys' like Oracle and IBM have recently bought some of the medium-sized suppliers; but we're also seeing consolidation amongst the medium sized suppliers, e.g. Sigma Systems buying C-Cor, and Subex buying Syndesis, as they race to achieve scale.
• Best of Breed components do not generate a Best of Breed system.  Tier 2/3 markets have generally focused upon all-in-one solutions because of limited scale and cash.  Tier 1 operators have generally implemented a 'best of breed' component approach.  However, as we've seen in several cases, which I'll not name here, having a kitchen full of Michelin chefs does not necessarily result in a meal worthy of a Michelin star.
• Strong push with most operators to control their escalating BOSS spend on both legacy and new services.

Since that article we've seen the follow consolidation:

• Amdocs is buying Jacobs Rimmel for approximately $45 million in cash;
• Sonus bought Atreus for a rumored $25m (unclear if its cash or stock as terms were not disclosed);
• Comptel bought Axiom for $7m GBP cash ($14m);
• Alcatel Lucent is buying Motive for $67.8m in cash; and
• NEC is buying NetCracker Technology,in a reported $300 million deal.

I thought by the end of this year I'd need to update the small-medium fulfillment landscape, however, with the above 5 deals being announced within 3 months, I'm updating sooner than I expected.  Generally these smaller companies have exited into the larger telecom network equipment providers or telecom software solution providers.  What will be interesting to see over the coming months is whether some of the medium sized suppliers in this space can merge and create a long-term viable independent business necessary for sustained innovation and price competition, or will they all just exit into the 'big guys.'